What was counted
Every federal contract in 12 NAICS codes with a recorded value between $250,000 and $20,000,000 whose period of performance ends between 2026-08-12 and 2028-01-31. That is 237 awards. For each one we read number_of_offers_received from the latest procurement transaction on the award, which is FPDS data exposed through USAspending's public API. 237 of the 293 awards we pulled carried a usable offer count; the rest reported none and are excluded rather than guessed at.
Nothing here is modelled, scraped from a paid service, or estimated. Any line can be checked by searching its award ID on usaspending.gov.
The full underlying dataset — every contract, its offer count, its set-aside and a direct USAspending link — is published as a CSV, together with the collector that builds it, at github.com/beeindustriesmail-tech/federal-recompete-offer-counts. It is released under CC0; you do not need our permission or our agreement to reuse it.
By NAICS code
236220Commercial and institutional building construction — 5 of 24 contracts drew one offer (21%)
484210Used household and office goods moving — 9 of 15 contracts drew one offer (60%)
541310Architectural services — 12 of 24 contracts drew one offer (50%)
541330Engineering services — 5 of 20 contracts drew one offer (25%)
541511Custom computer programming services — 5 of 15 contracts drew one offer (33%)
541512Computer systems design services — 5 of 21 contracts drew one offer (24%)
541519Other computer related services — 8 of 21 contracts drew one offer (38%)
541611Administrative and general management consulting — 7 of 14 contracts drew one offer (50%)
541990All other professional, scientific and technical services — 8 of 21 contracts drew one offer (38%)
561210Facilities support services — 5 of 20 contracts drew one offer (25%)
561320Temporary help services — 6 of 21 contracts drew one offer (29%)
561730Landscaping services — 15 of 21 contracts drew one offer (71%)
The spread is the interesting part. In landscaping and in freight moving, most expiring contracts had a single bidder last cycle. In building construction, four in five had real competition. A contractor deciding where to spend proposal time is choosing between those two worlds, and today has no way to tell which one a given solicitation belongs to until after the award is published.
The largest of them
The twelve single-offer contracts with the highest recorded value, each ending within 18 months, each recorded as competed, each having received one offer at its last award.
ContractFA805126F0026 — $50,000,000
IncumbentFLUOR INTERCONTINENTAL, INC
AgencyDepartment of Defense
Ends2027-03-12 · NAICS 561210
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
Contract47QFWA20C0004 — $49,956,074
IncumbentBELL BOEING JOINT PROJECT OFFICE
AgencyGeneral Services Administration
Ends2026-09-30 · NAICS 541330
Last competition1 offer · Not Competed
Contract89233120FNA400264 — $49,779,596
IncumbentINNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIPS LLC
AgencyDepartment of Energy
Ends2026-08-16 · NAICS 561210
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
Contract89233123CNA000302 — $49,444,562
IncumbentPOWDER RIVER INDUSTRIES, LLC
AgencyDepartment of Energy
Ends2027-04-09 · NAICS 541519
Last competition1 offer · Not Competed
Contract2032H524F00012 — $49,302,709
IncumbentMETGREEN SOLUTIONS INC
AgencyDepartment of the Treasury
Ends2026-09-30 · NAICS 541519
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition After Exclusion Of Sources
ContractFA862024F4022 — $49,259,852
IncumbentSIERRA NEVADA COMPANY, LLC
AgencyDepartment of Defense
Ends2026-12-31 · NAICS 541990
Last competition1 offer · Not Competed
ContractHT001123C0092 — $49,222,309
IncumbentHUI HULIAU TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LLC
AgencyDepartment of Defense
Ends2026-10-11 · NAICS 541519
Last competition1 offer · Not Available For Competition
Contract70B02C21F00001280 — $49,195,836
IncumbentCACI, INC. - FEDERAL
AgencyDepartment of Homeland Security
Ends2026-09-26 · NAICS 541512
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
ContractN0017824F3005 — $48,928,116
IncumbentTECHNOLOGY SERVICE CORP
AgencyDepartment of Defense
Ends2027-02-26 · NAICS 541330
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
ContractN6426724F3000 — $48,918,490
IncumbentDELTA RESOURCES, INC.
AgencyDepartment of Defense
Ends2027-01-17 · NAICS 541330
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
Contract140D0422C0063 — $48,359,223
IncumbentWESTERN DOOR FEDERAL, LLC
AgencyDepartment of the Interior
Ends2026-09-26 · NAICS 541519
Last competition1 offer · Not Available For Competition
Contract19AQMM26F0255 — $48,228,472
IncumbentEMERGENT, LLC
AgencyDepartment of State
Ends2028-01-31 · NAICS 541519
Last competition1 offer · Full And Open Competition
Why this is not an accusation
A single offer is not evidence that anything improper happened. Incumbents are often the only firm holding the clearances, the facility or the transition risk, and agencies compete work they know only one company will bid. The point is narrower and entirely practical: the offer count from the last cycle is the best public signal of whether the next cycle is worth a small firm's proposal budget, and it is not in any of the alert products those firms pay for.
The tables this came from
Each of the 12 codes above is published in full and free, ranked from contestable to wired, with the incumbent and the offer count on every line: beeindustriesgov.com/r/. If your own NAICS code is not among them we will build it — your code, filtered to your set-aside status and if you want to one state or one agency, by email within 24 hours. One code, $149.
Order a report for one NAICS code — $149
Journalists and researchers: the underlying rows are yours for the asking, free and with no conditions. Write to beeindustriesmail@gmail.com.