Bee IndustriesFederal contract intelligence

Recompete watchlist · 14 August 2026

253 of 658 expiring contracts drew one offer last time

We took the largest federal contracts in 28 NAICS codes whose period of performance ends within 18 months, then looked up how many offers the government received the last time that work was awarded. Of the 658 awards where a count was reported, 253 drew exactly one offer — the outcome was settled before the solicitation posted. The rate is nowhere near uniform: 0 of 32 in NAICS 237310, against 5 of 6 in NAICS 332721. Which code you work in changes how much of your pipeline is real.

What the tables add up to

Counted across every code below, 90 of 237 contracts ending within 18 months drew exactly one offer at their last competition — 38 percent of them, and $2.21bn of the $6.86bn at stake. The method and the per-code breakdown are at /single-offer.html.

Every table we have published

Each one is free, and lists the contract, the incumbent, the agency, the end date and the offer count, ranked from contestable to wired.

NAICS 236210Industrial Building Construction
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle6 of 40 with a reported count
Reads as contestable22
NAICS 236220Commercial and institutional building construction, awards between $500k and $12M — the range a small general contractor can actually bond
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 24 with a reported count
Reads as contestable16
NAICS 237310Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle0 of 32 with a reported count
Reads as contestable20
NAICS 238220Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle7 of 36 with a reported count
Reads as contestable13
NAICS 332721Precision Turned Product Manufacturing
Ending within 18 months8 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 6 with a reported count
Reads as contestable0
NAICS 336611Ship Building and Repairing
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle12 of 33 with a reported count
Reads as contestable9
NAICS 484210Specialized freight and relocation services — federal recompetes ending within 18 months
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle9 of 15 with a reported count
Reads as contestable4
NAICS 488510Freight Transportation Arrangement
Ending within 18 months6 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle2 of 4 with a reported count
Reads as contestable1
NAICS 493110General Warehousing and Storage
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle14 of 23 with a reported count
Reads as contestable3
NAICS 517311Wired Telecommunications Carriers
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle17 of 30 with a reported count
Reads as contestable7
NAICS 541310Architectural services — federal design and A/E contracts
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle12 of 24 with a reported count
Reads as contestable1
NAICS 541330Engineering services — the code Navy and DoD technical support is bought under
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 20 with a reported count
Reads as contestable7
NAICS 541511Custom computer programming services
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 15 with a reported count
Reads as contestable4
NAICS 541512Computer systems design services
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 21 with a reported count
Reads as contestable6
NAICS 541519Computer facilities management and IT support services
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle8 of 21 with a reported count
Reads as contestable5
NAICS 541611Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services
Ending within 18 months18 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle7 of 14 with a reported count
Reads as contestable4
NAICS 541614Process, Physical Distribution, and Logistics Consulting Services
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle7 of 24 with a reported count
Reads as contestable7
NAICS 541620Environmental Consulting Services
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle10 of 23 with a reported count
Reads as contestable9
NAICS 541715Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle17 of 29 with a reported count
Reads as contestable3
NAICS 541990Professional and technical services, all other — federal recompetes ending within 18 months
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle8 of 21 with a reported count
Reads as contestable8
NAICS 561110Office Administrative Services
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle14 of 26 with a reported count
Reads as contestable3
NAICS 561210Facilities support services
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle5 of 20 with a reported count
Reads as contestable11
NAICS 561320Temporary help services — the code most federal healthcare and administrative staffing is bought under
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle6 of 21 with a reported count
Reads as contestable7
NAICS 561612Security Guard and Patrol Services
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle4 of 28 with a reported count
Reads as contestable9
NAICS 561720Janitorial Services
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle31 of 39 with a reported count
Reads as contestable2
NAICS 561730Landscaping and grounds maintenance — federal recompetes ending within 18 months
Ending within 18 months25 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle15 of 21 with a reported count
Reads as contestable5
NAICS 611430Professional and Management Development Training
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle11 of 35 with a reported count
Reads as contestable11
NAICS 811310Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Repair and Maintenance
Ending within 18 months40 contracts
Drew one offer last cycle6 of 13 with a reported count
Reads as contestable3

Where the numbers come from

Every field is public. The contract list and end dates come from USAspending's award search; the offer count, competition type and set-aside come from each award's latest procurement transaction, which is FPDS data. Nothing is estimated and nothing is scraped from a paid service. You can check any line by searching the award ID on usaspending.gov.

Read the counts honestly: each table covers awards between $250,000 and $20,000,000, taken largest first, so these are the biggest expiring contracts in a code rather than a census of all of them. Awards where the government reported no offer count are excluded from the single-offer figures and shown separately on each page. The sample is 28 codes, not the whole of federal procurement.

The same table for your code

Tell us your NAICS code and we will build it: your code, filtered to your set-aside status and, if you want, to one state or one agency, with the contestability read written out on every line. One code, $149, by email within 24 hours. Tell us the code when you pay and we will confirm before we start.

Order a report for one NAICS code — $149

We also publish a weekly screen of open solicitations cut to one company's codes, at $199 a month, and a go/no-go teardown on a single live solicitation at $99. The teardown is published in full at /t/cheesequake.html.